Tensions Rise as US-China Military Leaders Maintain Superficial Relations
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's attempt to arrange a meeting with his Chinese counterpart during the Shangri-la Dialogue was met with refusal from Beijing. Instead, Austin had a brief encounter with the Chinese defense minister at a dinner preceding the conference. This incident highlights a concerning lack of communication between the two countries' armed forces, causing unease at the Pentagon.
The disparity in how the US and China perceive military risks has become increasingly apparent and problematic. While the US seeks to establish more extensive military communications, China remains hesitant to engage. The strained relations between the superpowers extend to various contentious issues, such as Taiwan, China's activities in the South China Sea, and US efforts to curtail China's semiconductor industry.
In response, the US military has emphasized the importance of open lines of communication at both senior and working levels to prevent potential conflicts. China, on the other hand, has been slow to establish military contacts and has swiftly terminated them during periods of diplomatic tension. After the US downed a purported Chinese spy balloon earlier this year, communication between the two sides came to a halt and has not resumed, according to US officials.
This lack of engagement has frustrated the United States. Despite proposing phone calls, meetings, and dialogues, the US has struggled to find a consistently willing partner in China for military-to-military engagement. Chinese officials argue that communication between the two countries should contribute to a greater mutual understanding. However, they question the sincerity and significance of such communication while the US continues to impose sanctions on Chinese officials, institutions, and companies.
The rejection of a meeting between Austin and China's Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu can be attributed, in part, to the sanctions imposed on Li since 2018 due to his purchase of combat aircraft and equipment from a Russian arms exporter. Beijing views these sanctions as evidence that the US lacks sincerity in its efforts to engage in talks with China. Additionally, other factors, including different risk assessments, divergent negotiation approaches, and China's emphasis on maintaining equal terms in dialogues, contribute to the reluctance to engage in military discussions.
China believes that the US military operates within its sphere of influence, particularly in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. Consequently, China does not see it as advantageous to alleviate US anxieties through military talks but instead wants to increase concerns and influence Washington's operational behavior. Furthermore, China perceives the risk of a military conflict with the US as lower than the US does, particularly in light of the ongoing Ukraine war.
China also has a different perspective on how military talks fit into the broader US-China relationship. While the US prefers to keep security-related discussions separate, China would rather focus on trade and economic matters. From China's standpoint, military talks can be used as bargaining chips.
Beijing has shown a clear preference for prioritizing economic relations with American businesses and the government over more contentious political and defense channels. CIA Director William Burns visited China recently and emphasized the importance of maintaining open lines of communication in intelligence channels.
The potential for accidental military clashes with China is a tangible concern. The 2001 incident where a US spy plane made an emergency landing on Hainan island after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet serves as a stark reminder. With a Chinese pilot losing their life and the subsequent detainment of the US crew for 11 days, this incident underscores the dangers inherent in such situations.
Since 2021, China has declined or not responded to over a dozen requests from the Pentagon for talks and nearly ten requests for working-level engagement. While responses vary, Beijing has consistently rejected these requests, including the recent snub at the Shangri-la Dialogue.
US officials view this incident as another excuse in a long list of rejections, further exacerbating concerns regarding the lack of communication between the two military.
