Japan is preparing to provide military assistance to the Philippines in securing its ocean approaches and safeguarding Taiwan's western flank, marking a significant expansion of security ties between the two countries. This move would bring Japanese military forces back to the region for the first time since World War II.
As Japan shifts away from decades of pacifism, it recognizes the Philippines as a crucial point in an island chain stretching from Japan to Indonesia, through which ships must pass to reach the Pacific Ocean. One of Japan's main concerns is a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, which could escalate into a broader conflict. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has warned that what is happening in Ukraine today could happen in East Asia tomorrow. In order to address this threat, Japan announced in April that it would provide military aid to partner nations, including radars, to help the Philippines plug any defensive gaps.
Retired navy commander Katsutoshi Kawano stated that providing radars to the Philippines is highly beneficial because it allows for information sharing regarding the Bashi Channel, a crucial passageway between the Philippines and Taiwan. This channel is considered a strategic chokepoint for vessels navigating between the western Pacific and the contested South China Sea.
According to three Japanese government officials involved in security strategy planning, the United States is advising Japan on what assistance to provide due to its close military relationship with the Philippines. However, one official emphasized that the aid effort is driven by Japan and not something the US has pushed for. The officials chose to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter.
A spokesperson from Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that they are currently selecting equipment for maritime monitoring and security, but the specific details are yet to be determined.
The Philippines' Department of Foreign Affairs expressed that it is not yet ready to comment on security assistance from Japan or the hosting of Japanese soldiers.
On Friday, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with his counterparts from Japan and the Philippines, Takeo Akiba and Eduardo Ano, in Tokyo for the first in a series of regular meetings to discuss security cooperation. The three officials discussed a wide range of regional security challenges, including the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and North Korea. They also reiterated the importance of peace and security across the Taiwan Strait.
The scope of Japanese military assistance is currently limited by a self-imposed ban on lethal equipment exports. However, in December, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged to review this restriction as part of a five-year military expansion plan that will double defense spending in five years or less.
While looser export rules are expected in the near future, Japan has started testing these limitations amid growing pressure on industrialized economies to support Ukraine. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's visit to Japan last month for the G7 summit, Kishida provided military trucks and other vehicles. Tokyo has also informed the US that it can purchase advanced explosives in Japan for artillery shells destined for Ukraine.
Retired naval commander Katsutoshi Kawano and government officials anticipate that Japan's military assistance to the Philippines will gradually expand and could eventually include lethal weapons such as anti-ship missiles. They believe that Manila could grant Japan access to its military bases, similar to its arrangement with the US, allowing Japanese Self-Defense Force aircraft to monitor the South China Sea. Japan currently monitors waters east of Taiwan from Yonaguni Island, approximately 100 kilometers away.
In February, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Prime Minister Kishida agreed in Tokyo to cooperate in disaster relief efforts. This meeting was preceded by the first-ever visit of Japanese fighter jets to the Philippines in December and a series of high-level military meetings. In March, Japan observed joint US-Philippine military drills, and this month their coast guards conducted joint training for the first time.
Experts suggest that these developments could be a precursor to a bilateral access agreement between Japan and the Philippines, allowing their forces to operate on each other's soil. If Manila accepts such an agreement, which Japan has already established with the UK and Australia, it could be finalized within a year, according to one of the Japanese government officials.
Yusuke Ishihara, a senior fellow at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies, believes that since the change in administration, the Philippines has shown positive signs, indicating a potential swift agreement. However, he notes that Japan and the US are proceeding cautiously in their trilateral discussions with the Philippines due to sensitivities surrounding their relations with China. He suggests that focusing on economic and financial security issues, rather than solely defense matters, could help reassure the Philippines.
