Exploring the Departure of a Significant Number of Russians: Their Identities, Destinations, and Motivations
Meet Svetlana, a woman in her early 30s who hails from a small town in Russia. At 18, she relocated to Moscow to pursue a degree in physics at university. After completing her studies, she worked as a product manager for various companies.
Reflecting on her situation, Svetlana shares, "I never anticipated having to leave; my plan was to retire in Moscow. I genuinely love Russia and have cherished my life here."
Even before the Ukraine war, Russians had been emigrating, including those who disagreed with Moscow's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the implementation of new laws facilitating the punishment of dissent. Many settled in the Baltic states, other European Union countries, and Georgia.
For Svetlana, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 became a turning point. She explains, "When the war commenced, I realized it would be a prolonged conflict, and I also observed that people wouldn't take to the streets in protest. Both emotionally and rationally, it made sense for me to leave." She now finds herself in Belgrade, the capital of Serbia.
"I wanted to create as much distance as possible between myself and the authorities," she adds.
Many Russians shared similar sentiments, causing a trickle of emigration to transform into a steady stream.
The initial wave began in March and April of the previous year. New emigrants who spoke to the BBC expressed their opposition to the war and disappointment at the lack of widespread protest in Russia. Feeling isolated and vulnerable, they deemed it safer to seek refuge elsewhere.
In September 2022, President Putin initiated a military mobilization. Although the authorities referred to it as "partial," in reality, most men faced the risk of being conscripted.
Numerous reports emerged regarding inadequate training and insufficient equipment provided to the newly conscripted soldiers.
Consequently, men and their families started leaving in large numbers, leading to lengthy queues at Russian borders with Georgia and Kazakhstan.
Dmitry Peskov, the official spokesperson for the Russian president, denied that Russians were departing en masse to avoid the draft. In April, Russian authorities introduced an "online call-up" system, allowing new conscripts to be registered digitally instead of receiving paper documents. Peskov also refuted claims that the new system aimed to impede the outflow of men.
While precise figures on the number of people leaving Russia are unavailable, estimates range from hundreds of thousands to several million.
In May, the UK Ministry of Defence estimated that 1.3 million individuals had left Russia in 2022.
Other sources and publications, such as Forbes magazine, reported figures provided by sources within the Russian authorities, indicating that between 600,000 and 1,000,000 people departed in 2022. Independent Russian media outlets, including The Bell and RTVi, published similar numbers. Departing Russia is relatively straightforward for those with financial means who haven't been conscripted into the army. However, finding a permanent place of residence abroad proves challenging.
In the months following the war's onset, many countries, primarily in the European Union and the United States, made it difficult for Russians to obtain visas unless they had family or work-related reasons for travel.
In contrast, countries like Georgia and Armenia imposed no such restrictions, allowing Russians to come and go freely, which remains the case.
Some countries, including Kazakhstan, modified their laws earlier this year to limit the number of days Russian tourists could stay, reportedly in an effort to stem the influx of Russian immigrants.
With little prospect of returning to Russia, an increasing number of people must apply for residency in their chosen destination countries to secure employment. However, many have found ways to continue working remotely for Russian employers.
Over the past 15 months, approximately 155,000 Russians received temporary residence permits collectively across EU countries, several Balkan nations, the Caucasus, and Central Asia.
According to the European Union Agency for Asylum, nearly 17,000 individuals have sought political asylum in EU countries, but only around 2,000 have been granted such status.
The Russian Interior Ministry reported a 40% increase in applications for foreign passports in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Throughout this war, we have interviewed numerous Russians who have left their homeland.
They come from diverse backgrounds, including journalists, IT experts, designers, artists, academics, lawyers, doctors, PR specialists, linguists, and more. Most are under 50 years old and often share Western liberal values, hoping for a future where Russia becomes a democratic country. Some identify as LGBTQ+.
Sociologists studying the current Russian emigration wave suggest that those leaving tend to be younger, better educated, and wealthier than those choosing to stay. They often originate from larger cities.
Thomas, from St. Petersburg, shares his experience: "I am a pacifist, and the prospect of being sent to kill other people terrified me. Since 2014, I have opposed Russia's policies towards Ukraine. The invasion and the killing of civilians are unacceptable," he states. After the full-scale invasion began, Thomas voiced his anti-war sentiments on social media and participated in street protests. As a gay man, he also feared for his safety.
"After Russia enacted laws banning 'gay propaganda' and targeting 'fake news' about the Russian army, I knew that the threat to my life and freedom had increased," Thomas explains. He applied for political asylum in Sweden, attempting to explain to the authorities the dangers he would face if forced to return to Russia. Although his initial application was rejected, he appealed the decision.
"Since I only have limited access to a state-appointed lawyer, I am gathering evidence for my case on my own," he says.
For Sergei, a native of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, the situation is different. He currently resides in Tbilisi, Georgia. On the day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sergei contacted several friends, and they unanimously agreed that the war would have negative consequences.
"No matter what unfolded, we knew the economy was going to suffer," Sergei remarks. "A week later, we all met and decided we needed to prepare to leave."
As days went by, the war drew closer.
"We witnessed significant military movements towards Ukraine. Hospitals were filled with wounded individuals. Rostov airport closed to civilian flights, yet we observed numerous planes departing, and we knew their destination," he recounts.
In September, following Putin's mobilization speech, Sergei's mother, who had previously criticized him for not displaying sufficient patriotism, called him and advised, "Pack your things and go." Sergei embarked on an overnight drive to Georgia, where he currently resides. "My wife and child are still in Russia, and I have to support their expenses and accommodations there while working two jobs—one remotely for my Russian company and another for a friend's small business here," he shares.
Sergei is saving money to relocate his family from Russia to another country. He states that his wife, initially hesitant, now agrees that they need to seek a new life elsewhere.
What does this exodus mean for Russia?
The Russian authorities attempted to downplay the impact of hundreds of thousands of educated and affluent individuals leaving the country along with their financial resources, but the economic consequences are undeniable.
Alfa Bank, Russia's largest private bank, estimates that approximately 1.5% of the entire Russian workforce may have emigrated, consisting primarily of highly skilled professionals. Companies are reporting staff shortages and encountering difficulties in recruitment.
Russia's Central Bank reported record withdrawals of 1.2 trillion roubles (around £12 billion / $15 billion) from bank accounts, a scale not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.
Economist Sergei Smirnov, from the Russian National Academy of Sciences, believes that the trend of highly skilled individuals seeking opportunities abroad will continue. "There will be an increasing demand for people who can fix cars or make shoes. While I dislike apocalyptic scenarios, I believe this will lead to a continual decline in productivity within the Russian economy," he predicts.
The economist points out that these developments will primarily affect large cities like Moscow, St. Petersburg, and Yekaterinburg.
Meanwhile, Svetlana, currently in Belgrade, has no plans to return to Russia.
"I am currently working for a start-up based in Moldova, but I recently applied for a job in the Netherlands," she shares.
Sergei, now in Tbilisi, is actively applying for jobs in Europe. His current life is challenging: "I don't have any days off, and sometimes I don't even have enough time for a full night's sleep—I catch naps in the car."
As for Thomas in Sweden, he hopes he won't be compelled to return to Russia, where he fears facing homophobic abuse. He is learning Swedish to increase his chances of finding any job.
The departure of educated and skilled individuals, along with their economic resources, presents significant challenges for Russia. However, the impact on smaller cities, towns, and rural areas may be less noticeable, as their standards of living have historically remained low and are likely to continue in that vein.
