Ukraine's Offensive: The Path to Success and Key Considerations
Amidst Ukraine's ongoing military campaign against the Russian army, Ukrainian officials emphasize that this is not a mere counter-offensive; it is their offensive, a critical opportunity to reclaim their land from the occupying forces. However, what will it take for Ukraine to achieve its desired outcome?
While Ukraine's recent territorial gains in retaking smaller villages may generate optimism among its citizens, these victories hold limited strategic significance. The primary area of focus in this campaign lies in the south, specifically the region between Zaporizhzhia and the Sea of Azov. This region contains the crucial "land corridor" that connects Russia to the illegally annexed Crimea. If Ukraine can effectively divide this territory and maintain control over the recaptured areas, it would mark a significant success.
Such an achievement would not only isolate Russian troops in the west but also hinder the resupplying of their garrison in Crimea. While it may not bring an immediate end to the war, which some predict could persist for years, it would position Ukraine favorably during future peace negotiations. However, it is important to note that the Russians have already recognized the significance of this corridor and have constructed formidable defensive fortifications to protect it.
Russian minefields, concrete tank-blockers (referred to as "dragons' teeth"), bunkers, firing positions, and extensive trenches designed to halt advancing tanks all obstruct Ukraine's path to the coast. These obstacles are complemented by pre-determined artillery impact zones that pose a constant threat to Ukrainian armored vehicles. Initial indications suggest that these Russian defenses are proving resilient, as Ukraine's current attacks serve as reconnaissance and probing actions aimed at assessing the strength and vulnerabilities of the enemy's positions.
Ukraine draws strength from its soldiers' morale and their commitment to liberating their own country. In contrast, many of Russia's troops lack comparable motivation, and their training, equipment, and leadership may be inferior to Ukraine's. Ukrainian military strategists hope that a significant breakthrough could lead to a collapse in Russian morale, causing demoralization to spread across the battlefront and erode the will to fight among Russian forces.
Furthermore, Ukraine benefits from the superior quality of hardware provided by NATO countries. Unlike Soviet-designed armored vehicles, NATO tanks and infantry fighting vehicles can often withstand direct hits or offer better protection to their crews. However, countering Russia's artillery and drone attacks will require more than just advanced equipment.
Russia, being a larger country, has greater resources at its disposal compared to Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin, the initiator of this conflict, aims to wear down the Ukrainian forces, hoping for a prolonged stalemate that could eventually lead to war fatigue among the US and other allies, pressuring Ukraine to seek a compromise ceasefire.
The availability of air cover, or the lack thereof, also plays a crucial role in the success of an offensive against a well-entrenched enemy. Recognizing this, Ukraine has long sought close air support, including F16 fighter jets, from Western allies. However, the approval for the supply of F16s by the US came late in May, after Ukraine had already initiated the preparatory phase of its offensive.
As Ukraine continues its offensive, the nation faces significant challenges in achieving its objectives. Success hinges on breaking through Russian defenses, maintaining morale, countering artillery and drone attacks, and securing adequate air support. The outcome of this campaign will shape the future of Ukraine and its ongoing struggle to regain control of its territory.
Timing is critical for Ukraine, as the arrival of game-changing F16s may come too late to have a significant impact during the initial stages of the ongoing counter-offensive.
However, it would be premature to assume that the Ukrainians will inevitably lose. Time and again, they have demonstrated their agility, resourcefulness, and inventiveness. In the past, they successfully expelled the Russian army from Kherson by targeting their rear-area logistics hubs, disrupting the resupply of Russian troops in that southern city.
Now, equipped with long-range weapons such as Britain's Storm Shadow cruise missile, Ukraine aims to replicate their previous successes. However, amidst the propaganda war and conflicting claims, it could take weeks or even months to gain a clearer understanding of which side is likely to ultimately prevail in this protracted conflict.
